How Many Cups a Day a Coffee Point Needs to Break Even

The most common question before launching a coffee point is how much it will earn. The right question is the opposite: how many cups a day do you need to sell so you don't lose money? The first question can't be answered honestly until the point has run for a month. The second can be answered before you've bought anything.

Let's go through the calculation step by step, using real 2026 market ranges.

The break-even formula

A point breaks even when the gross margin from all the cups sold covers the month's fixed costs.

Divide monthly fixed costs by the margin on one cup (price minus cost), then divide the resulting number of servings by the number of working days. That gives you the daily cup target.

All the difficulty hides in the three numbers on the right. People systematically underestimate every one of them.

Step 1. Cup cost

The cost of a 300 ml cappuccino in 2026 breaks down roughly like this.

ComponentRangeBeans (7-9 g per serving)12-25 ₽ depending on purchasing and blendMilk or milk powder8-18 ₽Cup, lid, stirrer, sugar7-12 ₽Water and filtration1-3 ₽Card acquiring fees (1.5-2.5% of the price)2-5 ₽

The rows add up to 30-60 ₽, and on the market it most often comes out at 30-50 ₽. A figure below 30 ₽ usually means something wasn't counted: most often cups, acquiring fees or the rise in bean prices. Beans have become noticeably more expensive over the past year, and calculations made in 2024 are wrong today.

Step 2. Fixed costs

The list here is longer than it seems. For a self-service point it includes:

The trade levy deserves a separate mention. In Moscow it has been in force since 2015: the base rate per machine is 5,184 ₽ per quarter, and every year it is multiplied by a coefficient. In 2026 it comes to 11,223 ₽ per quarter. For a point that sells 30 cups a day, that is a noticeable share of the margin. Since 2026 the levy is also paid by former sole proprietors on the patent tax regime, so their old calculations don't include it.

Step 3. Cup price

The price is set not by cost but by the surroundings. In grocery retail the average ticket of a coffee zone stays around 100 ₽ or lower, at fuel stations it is 230-280 ₽, and in a business centre you can confidently operate in the 130-190 ₽ range. In self-service coffee shops the average ticket, according to Platforma OFD, was 107 ₽ for January-October 2025 and about 128 ₽ at the start of 2026.

The temptation to set a lower price to "build up demand" usually ends badly in vending. With a margin of 60 ₽ per cup you break even at 40 sales a day; with a margin of 45 ₽, at 55. A 15 ₽ difference on the price tag changes the requirements for the location more than any advertising.

Calculating with real numbers

Let's take a self-service machine in a business centre.

ParameterValueCup price140 ₽Cost42 ₽Margin per cup98 ₽Spot rent15,000 ₽/monthDepreciation (600,000 ₽ over 60 months)10,000 ₽/monthMaintenance, connectivity, logistics12,000 ₽/monthTotal fixed costs37,000 ₽/month

Dividing fixed costs by the margin per cup gives 378 servings a month, or about 13 a day with no days off. It sounds easy. Then reality begins.

Those 13 cups are the point where you don't lose money. For the 600 thousand invested to come back within a year, you need a profit of around 50 thousand a month above break-even, and that is roughly another 17 cups a day. So the working bar is about 30 cups a day, and that alone rules out half of the locations on offer.

Benchmarks by format

FormatTypical salesAverage priceCity fuel station50-100 cups/day230-280 ₽Highway fuel stationup to thousands of cups/day230-280 ₽Corner in grocery retail20-30 cups/dayup to 100 ₽Business centre, university, transport hub40-150 cups/day120-190 ₽

According to Alexander Kuzmin, head of RusHolts (RBC Saint Petersburg, March 2026), a coffee zone starts making a profit from 50-60 cups a day at a price of 110-120 ₽. This is a good external benchmark for checking your own model: if your calculation shows a profit at 15 cups, you have most likely forgotten something in fixed costs.

Three mistakes that make the calculation lie

Market averages instead of your own numbers. Cup cost depends on your blend, your purchasing volume and your recipe. The difference between 32 and 48 ₽ shifts the break-even point by 15-30%.

Forgotten depreciation. A machine isn't free just because you've already bought it. Without depreciation in the model, the point looks profitable right up to the moment the equipment has to be replaced.

Betting on "it will pick up". The first weeks already show what a location can do. If a point sells 8 cups against a break-even of 30, it won't reach 30 in six months. In that situation it is cheaper to move the machine than to rescue it with marketing.

Conclusion

Break-even is calculated before buying the equipment, not after. Three numbers decide everything: the cost of a cup with your recipe, an honest list of fixed costs including depreciation and the trade levy, and the price the point's surroundings can bear.

If a calculation shows a profit at fifteen cups a day, you have most likely forgotten something in the costs.

Frequently asked questions

How many cups a day must a point sell to pay back within a year

For a machine costing 600 thousand roubles with a margin of around 100 ₽ per cup, about 30 cups a day. For more expensive equipment the bar is proportionally higher.

What is the cost of a cup of coffee in 2026

30-50 ₽, counting beans, milk, cups, water and acquiring fees. Beans have become noticeably more expensive over the past year, so old calculations should be redone.

What to do if the point doesn't reach its target

First check three things: real foot traffic past the point, waiting time at peak, and equipment health from telemetry. If everything is fine and there are still no sales, the location was chosen wrongly, and moving is cheaper than holding on.

Does the trade levy affect the calculation

In Moscow, yes. In 2026 the rate per machine is 11,223 ₽ per quarter, about 3.7 thousand roubles a month per point.

You can run your own model on the DrinkX payback calculator. For choosing equipment, see which coffee machine to choose; for self-service machines, see the solution page.